Europe experienced widespread relief on Monday, as the tension caused by the announcement of a new 28-point plan for ending the war appeared – momentarily – to have been defused. A American diplomat spoke of "notable headway" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, Russian leadership made its countermove: a renewed assault of missile and drone strikes on Kyiv.
The Pattern of Peace Talks and Military Action
The chain of opposing developments captured the harsh reality of the outgoing year. By day, negotiation efforts are waged: hopeful statements are issued from various governments. Immense energy is devoted on managing particular approaches. By night, Moscow forcefully demonstrates the world that, for them, war remains the key method for achieving "resolution".
Nocturnal Warfare
As Russia's attack unfolded into the early hours of Tuesday, the immediate reality of Ukraine's defenselessness was exposed. Ukraine is equipped to monitor projectile deployments from across the border, a capacity provided through timely intelligence. From vantage locations, Ukrainian air force fighter jets that had been scrambled to counter approaching guided weapons roared overhead – sophisticated military planes delivered to Ukraine by Western partners.
Shortly after, Kyiv's missile defense thundered: multiple launches targeted at a incoming threat. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, most likely delivered by partner states. Every launch creates sudden vibrations, causing tremors. The moment of terror quickly transforms into resigned acknowledgment: perhaps the hostile projectile won't hit its mark this time, protecting urban areas from ruin and further power outages.
Ongoing Risks
Not long after, a heavy machine gun fired at a drone somewhere nearby, part of a rapid response unit – most likely allied-provided weaponry. Unfortunately, the bullets missed the enemy aircraft – it pressed on overhead toward its target.
Periodically, this continued until dawn. Kyiv greeted the early updates: several casualties, damage and infrastructure problems in numerous residences as a result of the night's assault. As always, everyone still maintained normal activities – experiencing conflict. But those entire period encapsulated Ukraine's essential dependence on Western support – a reliance that regional partners are clearly incapable to fill in the short term.
Ineffective Peace Efforts
The 28-point plan from American leadership provoked deep reactions, discussion and deep concern – and temporarily diverted attention from Ukraine's largest corruption scandal in years. Yet, we have seen this script before, after previous diplomatic encounters and bilateral conferences.
Every new proposal from Washington follows the consistent cycle: a political offensive against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with other European capitals, succeeds in resisting. They stabilise the situation but never actually secure success. This trend will, no doubt, endure.
Tactical Assessments
It is tempting to accuse certain parties of consistently pushing Russian terms. But that does not seem to be the entire situation. American leadership works based on a principle familiar among international relations experts: you cannot achieve through diplomacy what you have lost on the battlefield. The American government believes that it is unfeasible to force Russia to relinquish the land that it presently holds in Ukraine's occupied territories.
The issue is that while acknowledging this situation, American administration does little to prevent Kremlin actions, through words or deeds, from thinking that the situation will not evolve additionally in its advantage in the near future.
Opposing Positions
Therefore, the Kremlin is confident that time is on his side – that Ukraine and its allies are approaching exhaustion. Their incentive to agree to terms that does not give them the greatest potential benefit is virtually nonexistent. There may be numerous efforts to end hostilities, but they will continue as long as Russia's leader remains completely certain in the result.
On the contrary, Ukrainian leadership believes that Ukraine can still endure, progressively conceding people and territory but avoiding a complete military breakdown until situations evolve in its advantage.
Present Conditions
Objectively, there are no actual prerequisites for a ceasefire. Now, subjective factors are entering the equation: leadership ambitions to negotiate peace and achieve global acclaim, and Ukrainian leadership's twin challenges – on one hand, not to estrange crucial supporters, and on the other, to rally Ukrainians around the country's interests against any proposal Kyiv finds unacceptable, so that their focus does not move to domestic problems. And although their task will now be significantly challenging after recent developments, it remains highly unlikely that this will modify their basic position.
These opposing factors are guiding negotiations.
Summary and Prospects
It took a just a single week to terminate the proposed articles of the current initiative. Forceful and unpredictable management of the matter by American leadership, resistance by Ukraine and the remaining European nations, along with calming attempts of representatives, and finally, current information leaks, all served their function.
While new initiatives based on old ideas are approaching, Kyiv, London and other allied nations should arrive at a critical understanding: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to counter diplomatic offensives from Washington that are founded on Moscow's terms and reflect certain reluctance to alter the situation, if they stand together and enhance their military capacity at a much faster pace. If they do, no combination of diplomatic or military actions will be able to break them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capability to defend against evening bombardments will, for the predictable period, mainly require ongoing international assistance.