Ten years after the UK entered into a rushed referendum that divided the country and caused chaos, a advisory comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and citizens drifted into Brexit and the same might transpire with a referendum on a united Ireland, sparking upheavals for which no one is ready.
That represents the warning from two prominent commentators from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a potentially fraught and seismic referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can come out of the blue and can gain traction swiftly," the commentator remarked. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our islands remains extremely volatile."
New Title Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have analysed the political, economic and societal arguments for any constitutional change in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the issue with a roadshow of lectures that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts everyone, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We must avoid a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you land with an highly divided society where people who have lost are unable to accept losing and the those successful lack clarity quite what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it is indicated that a majority would support.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups say that moment is imminent, and a non-profit named pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the prospect, making it uncertain when or if there will be a referendum.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unity has masked the shortage of substantive discussion, said the journalist.
"Many are for or against the concept but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to achieve it is mostly absent. Much has taken place in academia but scarcely any government figures or activists are willing to participate even with the fundamentals. For instance, what sort of state should be desired? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, neither author endorses unification or the status quo. Both writes two essays that seek neutrality in laying out the rationale for a united Ireland and the argument opposing it, gathering economic and social data, previous instances and structural examples.
Debates cover national emblems, levies, medical care, retirement funds, public liabilities and the danger of loyalist violence. The objective is to enlighten and provoke conversation.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there is still lacking a debate," stated O’Toole. "Debate indicates an acknowledgement of the notion that there could be valid points on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens report they favour unity but oppose greater financial contributions or implementing a alternative symbol to reflect pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland must establish what the plan from Irish nationalism is other than just stating: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we value you'," stated the commentator.
Likelihood of Public Vote
McBride thinks a referendum in his generation is likely and that it may take place unexpectedly. "There might be just a mad or a bad or a feckless government minister who declares: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have plausible, valid arguments, he stated. "Somebody will win here and somebody will ultimately not succeed but both parties has has valuable insights to acquire from the opposing viewpoints."
Request for Broader Debate
Westminster should engage with the discussion, said O’Toole. "This involves your state. It is a British question just as much as it is an Irish issue."